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The UK has experienced its ten warmest years on record since 2002, with 2022 marking the first time the annual average temperature exceeded 10°C. This warming trend has serious implications for skin health, with melanoma cases surging by 147% since the early 1990s. As the planet heats up, the British skin faces unprecedented challenges from increased UV exposure, pollution, and heat stress.
- Dr Sharon Crichlow
- Reading Time: 10 Mins
Key Statistics at a Glance
- All ten warmest UK years have occurred since 2002; 2022’s mean temperature reached 10.03°C (Met Office)
- Warm days (≥25°C) increased 63%, hot days (≥28°C) doubled, and very hot days (≥30°C) trebled in 2014-2023 compared to 1961-1990 (Royal Meteorological Society)
- Melanoma incidence up 147% since the early 1990s; almost tripled in males, doubled in females (Cancer Research UK)
- 49% of UK adults get sunburned at least once annually; 65% among young adults (Melanoma Focus)
- Just five lifetime sunburns doubles melanoma risk (Melanoma Focus)
- The NHS spends approximately £500 million annually on skin cancer treatment (The Guardian)
- Each 10 µg/m³ increase in NO₂ linked to approximately 25% more facial dark spots (Krutmann et al.)
- Atopic eczema affects one in five UK children and one in ten adults (National Eczema Society)
Table of Contents
The UK’s Warming Climate Trend
The Met Office has confirmed a consistent warming pattern across the UK, with 2022 recording the highest mean temperature of 10.03°C. This unprecedented warming is not an isolated incident; all ten warmest years in the UK’s instrumented record have occurred since 2002.
This shift is particularly evident in the changing frequency of hot days. A Royal Meteorological Society analysis found that compared to the 1961-1990 baseline period, the 2014-2023 decade saw:
- 63% increase in “warm” days (≥25°C)
- More than double the number of “hot” days (≥28°C)
- More than triple the number of “very hot” days (≥30°C)
These temperature increases extend the periods when skin is exposed to environmental stressors, creating cumulative damage over time.
Rising UV Exposure in Britain
Climate change is affecting UV radiation levels across Europe. The European Climate & Health Observatory reports that in southern and central Europe, the UV index has increased since the 1990s. In Eastern Europe, daily UV radiation increased by approximately 5-8% per decade between 1979 and 2015.
The trends suggest more frequent high-UV days. This is concerning because increased UV exposure raises the risk of sunburn, DNA damage, and skin cancer.
The depletion of the ozone layer, coupled with changing weather patterns, means that even on moderately warm days, UV exposure can reach harmful levels. This presents a particular challenge in the UK, where awareness of UV risk on cloudy or mild days remains low.
Skin Cancer Incidence and Trends
Skin cancer rates in the UK have risen dramatically in recent decades, with both melanoma and non-melanoma forms showing concerning trends.
Melanoma Statistics
According to Cancer Research UK, around 17,537 people were diagnosed with melanoma each year in the UK between 2017-2019. Melanoma now accounts for 5% of all new cancers in the country.
The increase in incidence has been stark:
| Melanoma Trend | Time Period | Percentage Increase / Cases |
|---|---|---|
| Overall increase | Since early 1990s | 147% |
| Male increase | Since early 1990s | 197% (almost tripled) |
| Female increase | Since early 1990s | 110% (doubled) |
| Overall increase | Last decade (to 2019) | 31% |
| Projected annual cases | By 2038-2040 | 26,500 (from current ~20,800) |
Non-Melanoma Skin Cancer
Non-melanoma skin cancers are even more common. According to projections by Cancer Research UK, there could be more than 262,000 new cases annually by 2038-2040, up from about 225,000 today.
Sunburn and UV Damage Risk Factors
Despite increased awareness, sun protection practices remain inadequate. UK charity Melanoma Focus reports that 49% of Britons get sunburned at least once a year, with this figure rising to 65% among 18-32-year-olds.
The long-term risk is significant: more than five lifetime sunburns doubles the risk of developing melanoma. With 86% of melanoma cases estimated to be preventable, according to Cancer Research UK, this represents a critical public health challenge.
Current behavioural patterns, combined with longer, hotter summers driven by climate change, create a perfect storm for rising cancer incidence.
Air Pollution Effects on Skin
Climate change and air pollution work synergistically to damage skin health. Research found that each 10 µg/m³ increase in nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) was associated with approximately 25% more facial dark spots (lentigines).
Air pollution particles generate free radicals that break down collagen and elastin, accelerating the ageing process. Urban residents face compounded risks from both UV exposure and pollution-related damage.
Impact on Inflammatory Skin Conditions
A 2024 PLOS ONE analysis of 286,862 US adults reported that for every 10 µg/m³ increase in fine particulate matter (PM₂.₅), the likelihood of having eczema more than doubled.
A 2025 systematic review of 42 studies found that 10 µg/m³ increases in PM₁₀, PM₂.₅, sulphur dioxide, and nitrogen dioxide were consistently associated with increases in outpatient and emergency visits for eczema.
Heat Stress and Inflammatory Skin Conditions
Extreme heat weakens the skin’s barrier function, increases sweating and sebum production, and can exacerbate conditions including eczema, rosacea, and acne.
The National Eczema Society states that atopic eczema affects one in five children and one in ten adults in the UK. This high baseline prevalence means a significant portion of the population is vulnerable to climate-related flare-ups.
Research indicates that extreme temperatures worsen eczema symptoms. As heatwaves become more frequent and intense, more people are likely to experience skin-related discomfort and medical complications.
Economic Impact on Healthcare
The financial burden of climate-related skin conditions is substantial and growing. The NHS currently spends approximately £500 million each year treating skin cancer.
Treatment costs vary significantly by stage and type:
| Treatment Scenario | Approximate Cost |
|---|---|
| Early-stage melanoma | £9,000 per case |
| Advanced melanoma | >£200,000 per case |
The August 2024 report by Melanoma Focus makes a compelling economic case for policy change: removing VAT on SPF 30+ sunscreen could save the NHS over £128 million annually, prevent 2,500-3,200 melanoma cases each year, and save more than 300 lives.
Prevention Strategies and Treatment Advances
Melanoma survival rates have improved dramatically, with 92.7% of people surviving ten years or more in 2018, compared with just 46% in the 1970s. This reflects significant advances in early detection and treatment.
However, prevention remains the most cost-effective approach.
The global sun-care market reflects growing awareness of these needs. Fortune Business Insights values the market at USD 14.90 billion in 2024, with projections to reach USD 22.28 billion by 2032, a compound annual growth rate of 5.35%.
Policy Considerations and Public Health Response
Current evidence suggests several policy approaches that could mitigate the health impacts of climate change on skin:
- Removing the 20% VAT on sunscreen, which currently classifies it as a cosmetic rather than a health product
- Enhancing UV index reporting in weather forecasts year-round
- Implementing workplace sun safety policies for outdoor workers
- Integrating skin cancer prevention into school health curricula
- Developing urban planning strategies to reduce pollution and provide shade in public spaces
A coordinated public health response requires collaboration between dermatologists, climate scientists, policymakers, and educators to address the complex interplay of environmental and behavioural factors.
Conclusion
Climate change is creating unprecedented challenges for skin health in the UK. Rising temperatures, increased UV exposure, and higher pollution levels are driving increases in skin cancer and inflammatory conditions, with significant human and economic costs.
While treatment advances have improved outcomes for many conditions, prevention remains the most effective strategy. Policy changes like VAT removal on sunscreen could yield substantial health and economic benefits. As climate impacts intensify, protecting skin health will require both individual behaviour changes and systemic policy responses.
- Sources
- https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/
- https://www.rmets.org/news/
- https://climate-adapt.eea.europa.eu/
- https://www.cancerresearchuk.org/
- https://melanomafocus.org/
- https://www.cancerresearchuk.org/
- https://conexiant.com/dermatology/articles/
- http://managedhealthcareexecutive.com/
- https://eczema.org/information-and-advice/
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